A Final with Fire: Swiatek and Paolini Double the Heat in Cincinnati
All signs pointed to another chapter in Iga Swiatek’s hard-court dominance as she walked onto P&G Center Court for the 2025 Cincinnati Open final. With a 6–0 head-to-head record and not a single set dropped to Jasmine Paolini, the odds—and history—favored the Polish powerhouse. But finals don’t follow scripts. Not when Paolini is playing with nothing to lose and everything to prove.
Paolini Turns Up the Pace—Then Gets Caught in the Swiatek Slipstream
16 out of 25. That was the astonishing stat for points won after just three games—but not by Iga Swiatek. Surprisingly, it was Jasmine Paolini who held that early edge at the start of the first set. While it might’ve felt like another Swiatek bagel in the making, the Italian had flipped the script.
Swiatek faced trouble in her opening service game, facing a breakpoint which she saved to reach deuce. But she rushed the next few rallies, and Paolini capitalized on her second opportunity. With a confident hold in her next service game, Paolini surged ahead to a 3-0 lead.
The Polish star needed a response—and she delivered. After holding serve, Swiatek raced to 15-40 and earned two break points. A deep backhand from Swiatek drew an equally deep reply from Paolini, landing just inside the baseline. Forced into a difficult overhead smash, the Italian sent it long. Swiatek broke back for 2-3, and just like that, it was back on serve.
From there, Swiatek found her rhythm. Three quick game points led to a love hold and a 3-all scoreline. During that entire stretch, Paolini managed just three points—a stunning fightback from Poland’s world-class competitor.
Then it turned ruthless. Swiatek broke Paolini again, taking command of the rally on breakpoint before ripping a cross-court forehand winner into the Italian’s backhand corner. A 113 mph ace silenced the crowd in the next game—a crowd clearly pulling for the Italian underdog. But it did little to shift momentum. Swiatek led 5-3, and Paolini now had to hold serve to stay in the set—which she did comfortably, keeping her hopes alive at 4-5.
The 21-shot rally in the next game didn’t favor Paolini, who eventually lost the point after showing a hint of hesitation. Swiatek earned her first set point with a commanding sequence, but Paolini saved it brilliantly, smashing her way to deuce. No looping was needed in the next game. Swiatek dug in, fought her way to a break point, and capitalized as Paolini sent a forehand straight in the net. Just like that, it was 6-5 to the Pole. Chill and clinical, Iga Swiatek finished off the set 7-5 in a love hold.
Swiatek vs Paolini – Set 1 Stats
| Statistic | Swiatek | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Dominance Ratio | 1.20 | 0.83 |
| Serve Rating | 238 | 210 |
| Aces | 3 | 0 |
| Double Faults | 3 | 1 |
| 1st Serve % | 60% (25/42) | 65% (24/37) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 64% (16/25) | 58% (14/24) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 47% (7/15) | 38% (5/13) |
| Break Points Saved | 50% (2/4) | 0% (0/3) |
| Service Games | 67% (4/6) | 50% (3/6) |
| Ace % | 7.1% | 0% |
| Double Fault % | 7.1% | 2.7% |
| Return Rating | 254 | 172 |
| 1st Return Points Won | 42% (10/24) | 36% (9/25) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 62% (8/13) | 53% (8/15) |
| Break Points Won | 100% (3/3) | 50% (2/4) |
| Return Games | 50% (3/6) | 33% (2/6) |
| Pressure Points | 71% (5/7) | 29% (2/7) |
| Service Points | 60% (25/42) | 51% (19/37) |
| Return Points | 49% (18/37) | 40% (17/42) |
| Total Points | 54% (43/79) | 46% (36/79) |
| Max Points In A Row | 6 | 5 |
| Match Points Saved | 0 | 0 |
| Service Games | 67% (4/6) | 50% (3/6) |
| Return Games | 50% (3/6) | 33% (2/6) |
| Total Games | 58% (7/12) | 42% (5/12) |
| Max Games In A Row | 5 | 3 |
| Injury Timeouts | 0 | 0 |
| Set Duration | 0h 57m | |
Swiatek Weathers Paolini’s Fightback, Serves Her Way to Cincinnati Glory
Swiatek was on the ropes, chased corner to corner by Paolini—yet she floated a perfect lob that kissed the baseline, drew a moonball in return, and pounced at the net for a clinical break. What a way to kick off the second set and follow it up with a confident hold.
But Paolini wasn’t going anywhere. She dug deep to earn three break points in that next game, converting the third with a smart return that forced a backhand error from Swiatek. Back on serve at 1-all which went to 2-all.
Paolini then stumbled through a shaky service game, with a double fault gifting Swiatek an opening. The Pole took full advantage, breaking for 3-2 after an extra unforced error from Paolini.
How Swiatek served herself into a lull, we may never know—but Paolini capitalized, charging the net and volleying her way to a break point after deuce. What followed was the breakpoint of the championship: Swiatek threw everything at her, sending the Italian scrambling corner to corner, several times even, yet Paolini hung on, absorbed it all, and flipped the rally to steal the point—and the break—sending the crowd into absolute ecstasy. 3-all.
With Swiatek serving, Paolini sensed it was time to knock on the door. Playing super aggressively, she battled to 15-40 but couldn’t convert either break point. Swiatek responded with three clutch serves, capping the hold with an ace to move to 5-3 and just one game away from victory.
At 30-0 on Paolini’s serve, Swiatek already seemed focused on her next service game. Two points later, Paolini held for 5-4, leaving Swiatek exactly where she had been—one service game away from the title. The question now: could she serve it out and finally claim her first Cincinnati crown?
A long rally brought Paolini back to 15-all. It was already Swiatek’s third second serve of the game—but this time, the return from the Tuscan-born Italian sailed long. A sharp, controlled point from Swiatek followed, setting her up with two championship points.
And then, with cool precision, she closed it out—an ace, leaving a smiling Paolini frozen. No chance.
From Shocked to Sure: Swiatek Embraces Her Fast-Court Breakthrough Ahead of US Open
An overjoyed Iga Swiatek sprinted to her box, trading fist bumps and sharing an emotional double chat with coach Wim Fissette that said it all. She spoke quickly, animatedly—as if she couldn’t wait to tell him just how well everything is clicking. And rightly so. Even during her victory speech, while thanking her team, she let the word “shocked” slip before biting her lip. She was, of course, referring to the progress she’s made on fast courts—crediting the transformation to the work they’ve done together.
The 2025 Cincinnati champion will march this year into the US Open not just as a contender—but as the woman to beat. For the first time in her career, there’s no debate, no asterisk, no question marks. Iga Swiatek is the favorite to win the US Open —and the whole tennis world knows it.
Swiatek vs Paolini – Set 2 Stats
| Statistic | Swiatek | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Dominance Ratio | 1.17 | 0.86 |
| Serve Rating | 223 | 185 |
| Aces | 5 | 0 |
| Double Faults | 4 | 1 |
| 1st Serve % | 53% (19/36) | 48% (13/27) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 68% (13/19) | 77% (10/13) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 41% (7/17) | 21% (3/14) |
| Break Points Saved | 67% (4/6) | 0% (0/3) |
| Service Games | 60% (3/5) | 40% (2/5) |
| Ace % | 13.9% | 0% |
| Double Fault % | 11.1% | 3.7% |
| Return Rating | 262 | 164 |
| 1st Return Points Won | 23% (3/13) | 32% (6/19) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 79% (11/14) | 59% (10/17) |
| Break Points Won | 100% (3/3) | 33% (2/6) |
| Return Games | 60% (3/5) | 40% (2/5) |
| Pressure Points | 78% (7/9) | 22% (2/9) |
| Service Points | 56% (20/36) | 48% (13/27) |
| Return Points | 52% (14/27) | 44% (16/36) |
| Total Points | 54% (34/63) | 46% (29/63) |
| Max Points In A Row | 5 | 4 |
| Match Points Saved | 0 | 0 |
| Total Service Games | 60% (3/5) | 40% (2/5) |
| Total Return Games | 60% (3/5) | 40% (2/5) |
| Total Games | 60% (6/10) | 40% (4/10) |
| Max Games In A Row | 2 | 2 |
| Set 2 Duration | 0h 50m | |
We pulled it off—again. All three of our last predictions turned out to be spot-on. Not an easy feat in WTA tennis, as we all know.