The first women’s semifinal at the 2025 US Open pits the world No.1 against America’s most reliable performer. Aryna Sabalenka is eyeing her third Grand Slam title, while Jessica Pegula is chasing her first-ever major final. It’s a matchup loaded with history, power, and pressure under the lights of Arthur Ashe Stadium.
📍 Arthur Ashe Stadium, Sep 4, 7:00 PM (local)
1. Sabalenka Leads the Rivalry 7–2
Aryna Sabalenka has a firm grip on this head-to-head. She’s beaten Pegula in seven of their nine meetings, including their last three hard-court finals—Miami and Cincinnati this season, and last year’s US Open title match.
2. Both Have Been Untouchable in NYC
Neither player has dropped a set en route to the semifinals. Sabalenka’s power game has mowed through the field, while Pegula has dismantled opponents with clinical, mistake-free tennis. This is the heavyweight clash of Day 12.
3. Sabalenka’s Serve is a Game-Changer
Averaging more than six aces per match and winning 75% of first-serve points, Sabalenka’s delivery has been her launchpad all tournament. Pegula must neutralize the serve early—or risk watching the match race away.
4. Pegula’s Form is Peaking
With wins over former No.1 Victoria Azarenka and two-time Slam winner Barbora Krejcikova, Pegula looks sharper than ever. Her backhand has been rock-solid, and her transition game is clicking. This may be her most complete Slam run yet.
5. Sabalenka Has a Mental Edge
She’s not just winning matches—she’s winning big ones. Sabalenka’s 2024 US Open win over Pegula was tight (7-5, 7-5), but she held her nerve when it mattered. Confidence and familiarity in big matches make her dangerous here.
6. Pegula’s Time to Break Through?
At 31, this is Pegula’s third career Slam semifinal—and her best shot yet at reaching a final. With the crowd behind her and a full season of consistency, she’s no longer just a top-10 regular. She’s a real contender.
7. The Winner Likely Becomes the Final Favorite
With Osaka and Anisimova battling later, the Sabalenka-Pegula winner could enter the final with momentum and belief. For Aryna, it could mean Slam No. 4. For Pegula, it’s legacy-defining. Expect intensity and nerves from ball one.
Our Prediction: Sabalenka in 3 sets.
Preview of other US Open Semi-final between Anisimova and Osaka.