The second day of Round Robin action at the WTA Finals promises high-stakes matches, with Aryna Sabalenka aiming to lock in a semifinal spot. Fresh off opening victories, Sabalenka and Jasmine Paolini are set to clash for dominance in the Purple Group.
Across the court, Elena Rybakina and Qinwen Zheng face a critical match where only a win will keep their semifinal dreams alive. After losses in their first matches, both players know that a defeat here could mean the end of their journey in Riyadh.
Group Lead Duel: Sabalenka vs. Paolini
Aryna Sabalenka will take on Jasmine Paolini, who has arguably made one of the WTA’s most impressive leaps this season. Earlier in her career, Paolini had just four Grand Slam match wins across 16 tournaments, but her 2024 season has been transformative. With finals appearances at Roland Garros and Wimbledon, a WTA 1000 title in Dubai, and a rise into the top five, Paolini has firmly established herself as a top player.
Paolini scored her first top-10 indoor victory over Rybakina in her opening match, capitalizing on Rybakina’s forehand errors and using some clever serving. However, indoor hardcourt conditions might not favor Paolini as she faces the powerful 6-foot-tall Sabalenka. Known for thriving in longer rallies, Paolini could find herself at a disadvantage against Sabalenka’s willingness to look for the lines much quicker than Rybakina did.
Must-Win Showdown: Rybakina vs. Qinwen Zheng
Qinwen Zheng’s WTA Finals debut pitted her against Aryna Sabalenka, presenting an immediate challenge for the 22-year-old. Both Zheng and Sabalenka entered the tournament in impressive late-season form, but Sabalenka has consistently proven a difficult hurdle for Zheng. She has now lost all five of their encounters, managing to win just one set in total.
Once seen as a strong contender to advance alongside Sabalenka, Qinwen Zheng now finds herself needing a victory to stay in the tournament. Her opponent, Rybakina, returned to competition after a two-month hiatus but struggled against Paolini. Despite a strong start with her serve, Rybakina’s form dwindled, ultimately hitting 27 winners but overshadowed by 56 unforced errors.
Both Zheng and Rybakina will need to sharpen their first serves to keep their semifinal hopes alive. Rybakina landed 50% of her first serves (winning 82% of those points), while Zheng managed a similar 51% with the same win rate. Although Rybakina leads their head-to-head 2-0 without losing a set, the momentum may now be with Zheng, who is finishing the season in strong form, while Rybakina is still readjusting to high-level competition after her prolonged break.
Our Predictions:
Jasmine Paolini to win at least 1 set. FAIL.
Elena Rybakina to win at least 1 set. SPOT ON.