Elena Rybakina produced one of her sharpest performances of the season to defeat Jasmine Paolini 6-3, 6-2 and reach the final of the Ningbo Open, giving fresh momentum to her late push for the WTA Finals in Riyadh.
It is just her second final of 2025, yet one that could prove pivotal. The 2022 Wimbledon champion, long frustrated by near-misses in China, now stands a win away from her first career title on Chinese soil after falling short in 2019 and 2020. Her timing could hardly be better.
Composed and clinical: Rybakina fends off Paolini
Rybakina’s road to the final was steady rather than spectacular — victories over Dayana Yastremska and Ajla Tomljanovic built rhythm before this semi-final test against Paolini, the No. 2 seed fresh off a strong run in Wuhan.
Rybakina outlasts Paolini in deuce-heavy opener
The opening set was tight, with seven consecutive holds setting a tense tone. Rybakina set the tone with clutch serving—she saved break points in three separate holds but never got broken. Paolini matched stretches of quality, but the set hinged on a marathon eighth game. Paolini held three game points yet Rybakina kept leaning on the return, finally converting her 4th break point after 7 deuces to go up 5–3. The Kazakh then served it out from 30–40 down.
Rybakina vs Paolini – Set One Stats
| Statistic | Rybakina | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Dominance Ratio | 1.33 | 0.75 |
| Serve Rating | 291 | 249 |
| Aces | 7 | 0 |
| Double Faults | 0 | 1 |
| 1st Serve % | 47% (16/34) | 68% (30/44) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 81% (13/16) | 67% (20/30) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 56% (10/18) | 40% (6/15) |
| Break Points Saved | 100% (3/3) | 80% (4/5) |
| Service Games | 100% (5/5) | 75% (3/4) |
| Ace % | 20.6% | 0% |
| Double Fault % | 0% | 2.3% |
| Return Rating | 138 | 63 |
| 1st Return Points Won | 33% (10/30) | 19% (3/16) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 60% (9/15) | 44% (8/18) |
| Break Points Won | 20% (1/5) | 0% (0/3) |
| Return Games | 25% (1/4) | 0% (0/5) |
| Pressure Points | 50% (4/8) | 50% (4/8) |
| Service Points | 68% (23/34) | 57% (25/44) |
| Return Points | 43% (19/44) | 32% (11/34) |
| Total Points | 54% (42/78) | 46% (36/78) |
| Match Points Saved | 0 | 0 |
| Max Points In A Row | 4 | 5 |
| Max Games In A Row | 3 | 1 |
| Injury Timeouts | 0 | 0 |
| Set One Duration | 0h52m | |
Rybakina Overpowers Paolini to Take Set 2
Elena Rybakina recovered from an early exchange of holds to seize full control midway through the set. After leveling at 2–2, she broke Jasmine Paolini to love in the fifth game, storming through four straight points under triple break pressure. The Kazakh then consolidated cleanly for 4–2 and broke again at 5–2, capitalizing on sustained baseline aggression.
Serving for the set, Rybakina faced heavy resistance—saving three break points before converting her first match point. Paolini’s solid early rhythm faded as Rybakina tightened her first-serve accuracy and dictated off the return.
Rybakina vs Paolini – Set Two Stats
| Statistic | Rybakina | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Dominance Ratio | 1.44 | 0.69 |
| Serve Rating | 279 | 209 |
| Aces | 3 | 0 |
| Double Faults | 4 | 1 |
| 1st Serve % | 59% (16/27) | 64% (16/25) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 94% (15/16) | 63% (10/16) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 27% (3/11) | 33% (3/9) |
| Break Points Saved | 100% (4/4) | 60% (3/5) |
| Service Games | 100% (4/4) | 50% (2/4) |
| Ace % | 11.1% | 0% |
| Double Fault % | 14.8% | 4% |
| Return Rating | 195 | 79 |
| 1st Return Points Won | 38% (6/16) | 6% (1/16) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 67% (6/9) | 73% (8/11) |
| Break Points Won | 40% (2/5) | 0% (0/4) |
| Return Games | 50% (2/4) | 0% (0/4) |
| Pressure Points | 67% (6/9) | 33% (3/9) |
| Service Points | 67% (18/27) | 52% (13/25) |
| Return Points | 48% (12/25) | 33% (9/27) |
| Total Points | 58% (30/52) | 42% (22/52) |
| Match Points Saved | 0 | 0 |
| Max Points In A Row | 4 | 4 |
| Max Games In A Row | 5 | 1 |
| Injury Timeouts | 0 | 0 |
| Set 2 Duration | 0h38m | |
Alexandrova awaits after all-Russian semi-final
In the other semi-final, Ekaterina Alexandrova overcame Diana Shnaider 6-3, 6-4 to reach her fourth final of 2025. The world No. 10, who recently reached the Korea Open final, made a blistering start — breaking twice to lead 5-1 — before closing the first set at the second attempt on serve. Though Shnaider fought back in the second, Alexandrova’s greater composure told as she converted her sixth match point.
What’s next?
The upcoming final will be a meeting of two of the tour’s cleanest ball-strikers, both with something to play for: a title, ranking points, and momentum heading into the closing stretch of the season.
Race to Riyadh: pressure mounts on Mirra Andreeva
Rybakina’s run has serious implications for the Race to Riyadh. With Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek, Coco Gauff, Amanda Anisimova, Jessica Pegula, and Madison Keys already qualified, just two spots remain.
Paolini’s strong form has seen her leapfrog Mirra Andreeva into seventh place, while Rybakina’s push could take her to within 15 points of the final qualifying position with a win in Ningbo.
By contrast, Andreeva’s recent stumbles — early exits in Wuhan and the China Open, and a shock defeat to Lin Zhu here — have opened the door for her pursuers. With only the Pan Pacific Open in Tokyo left as a major points opportunity, every match there will shape the final field for Riyadh.