The highly anticipated final between Coco Gauff and Karolina Muchova promises an exciting climax to the 2024 season. Both players have delivered stellar performances in this China Open, and their head-to-head battle in this final could be a defining moment for each. Gauff’s explosive athleticism meets Muchova’s clever shot-making in what could be a classic. Let’s take a deep dive into their form, recent results, first serve stats, second serve stats, betting odds, and our predictions.
Gauff’s Form
Gauff has had a mixed year but has shown great resilience at the China Open. After suffering some setbacks earlier in the season, including an early exit from the US Open, she has rebounded in Beijing. Gauff defeated Paula Badosa in a tough semifinal match, coming from a set down. She also dispatched opponents like Katie Boulter and Naomi Osaka on her way to the final. This is Gauff’s first final since January 2024, a testament to her tenacity despite a challenging year.
Coco Gauff’s Last 10 Matches
(with the inclusion of first serve points won (1st%) and second serve points won (2nd%) where available)
Final – Beijing (Hard): (as updated) Coco Gauff defeats Karolina Muchova 6-1 6-3
Semifinal – Beijing (Hard): Win vs. Paula Badosa, 4-6, 6-4, 6-2
1st%: 53.8% & 2nd%: 41.7%
Quarterfinal – Beijing (Hard): Win vs. Yuliia Starodubtseva, 2-6, 6-2, 6-2 1st%: 78.6% & 2nd%: 41.7%
Round of 16 – Beijing (Hard): Win vs. Naomi Osaka, 3-6, 6-4 (ret.)
1st%: 54.2% & 2nd%: 37.0%
Round of 32 – Beijing (Hard): Win vs. Katie Boulter, 7-5, 6-2
1st%: 70.9% & 2nd%: 50.0%
Round of 64 – Beijing (Hard): Win vs. Clara Burel, 7-5, 6-3
1st%: 64.7% & 2nd%: 37.5%
Round of 16 – US Open (Hard): Loss vs. Emma Navarro, 6-3, 4-6, 6-3
1st%: 46.1% & 2nd%: 40.0%
Round of 32 – US Open (Hard): Win vs. Elina Svitolina, 3-6, 6-3, 6-3
1st%: 53.4% & 2nd%: 43.9%
Round of 64 – US Open (Hard): Win vs. Tatjana Maria, 6-4, 6-0
1st%: 43.5% & 2nd%: 57.1%
Round of 128 – US Open (Hard): Win vs. Varvara Gracheva, 6-2, 6-0
1st%: 63.9% & 2nd%: 45.5%
Muchova’s Form
Muchova has been in stellar form, having knocked out Zheng Qinwen in the semifinals with a solid 6-3, 6-4 win. Prior to that, she stunned Aryna Sabalenka, breaking the world number two’s 15-match winning streak. Muchova’s game is defined by her aggressive baseline play and her ability to dominate on serve. She only lost a set in the China Open to Sabalenka and has overcome significant injury struggles to return to top form. Muchova is seeking her second WTA title after reaching the final at the 2023 French Open. In Cincinnati she lost the final 6-3 6-4 to..
Coco Gauff. Her record in finals is a disaster: 1 out of ten won, Seoul 2019 being the last. But then again, she’s playing the bennis tennis in her life.
Karolina Muchova’s Last 10 Matches
Final – Beijing (Hard): (as updated) Coco Gauff defeats Karolina Muchova 6-1 6-3
Semifinal – Beijing (Hard): Win vs. Qinwen Zheng, 6-3, 6-4
1st%: 59.6% & 2nd%: N/A
Quarterfinal – Beijing (Hard): Win vs. Aryna Sabalenka, 7-6(5), 2-6, 6-4
1st%: 66.1% & 2nd%: 52.4%
Round of 16 – Beijing (Hard): Win vs. Cristina Bucsa, 6-2, 6-0
1st%: 94.4% & 2nd%: 61.1%
Round of 32 – Beijing (Hard): Win vs. Jaqueline Cristian, 6-1, 6-3
1st%: 78.1% & 2nd%: 55.6%
Round of 64 – Beijing (Hard): Win vs. Yue Yuan, 6-3, 6-1
1st%: 71.0% & 2nd%: 45.8%
Round of 128 – Beijing (Hard): Win vs. Anna Blinkova, 6-1, 6-1
1st%: 84.6% & 2nd%: 52.9%
Semifinal – US Open (Hard): Loss vs. Jessica Pegula, 1-6, 6-4, 6-2
1st%: 64.2% & 2nd%: 42.4%
Quarterfinal – US Open (Hard): Win vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia, 6-1, 6-4
1st%: 78.4% & 2nd%: 41.7%
Round of 16 – US Open (Hard): Win vs. Jasmine Paolini, 6-3, 6-3
1st%: 82.1% & 2nd%: 68.8%
Muchova’s consistency in high first-serve percentages during the China Open has been one of her standout qualities, particularly in crucial matches like her quarterfinal against Sabalenka.
Bookmakers’ Predictions
Karolina Muchova is slightly favored by the bookmakers for the 2024 China Open final. She’s been the stronger performer recently, including taking down world number one Aryna Sabalenka. H2H is 2-0 for Gauff with Muchova not able to take a set from the American.
Muchova’s odds to win (1.67 in European format):
- American odds: -149
- English (fractional) odds: 4/6
Gauff’s odds to win (2.20 in European format):
- American odds: +120
- English (fractional) odds: 6/5
Our prediction. Coco Gauff to win.. SPOT ON.
Overall prediction result: 10 out of 15 correct.