With an impressive early crowd on hand, Arthur Ashe Stadium in New York was perfectly set for an intriguing first semifinal — a rematch of the 2024 US Open final.
On one side stood Aryna Sabalenka, who enjoyed four extra days of rest after advancing via a walkover in the previous round. On the other side was Jessica Pegula, who, according to Sabalenka’s coach Anton Dubrov, has adjusted her game in a key area compared to last year: adding more variety combined with stronger defense.
Early Exchanges Set the Tone
The first surge of excitement from the crowd came during a rally in which the ball clipped the net cord twice, bringing Sabalenka to 30-30 on Pegula’s serve. But the American held her nerve, served out the game, and leveled the score at 1-1.
Pegula then did the same, clawing back to 30-30 on Sabalenka’s serve. Sabalenka’s game point, however, was one to savor. In a longer rally, the American suddenly switched down the line to the forehand side with added pace, yet the Belarusian used that speed to redirect the ball crosscourt, low over the net, to Pegula’s forehand wing. 2-1.
Even then, Pegula’s sharpness stood out, while Sabalenka looked more routine. After a lob drifted long, Pegula still held for 2-2. Sabalenka answered with a love hold for 3-2, unwilling to be outdone.
Back on serve, Pegula now faced her first mental tests. Could she sustain this tempo? A brilliant drop shot followed by an easy volley put Sabalenka in business at 0-30 and 15-40. A strong first serve and a Sabalenka mishit pushed it back to deuce. And again, deuce. A superb return gave Sabalenka a third break point, and her left-right combination proved enough. She could now serve for 5-2.
The slightest hesitation from Pegula could decide the set. Yet she fought back — from 15-0 to 15-30. The margins remained razor-thin. Another net cord from Sabalenka handed Pegula two break points. After 32 consecutive service games won, Sabalenka finally faltered, surrendering the game with a double fault.
Pegula Seizes Control Late in the Set
A formidable response from Pegula followed in her own service game — a love hold capped with incredible winners. Back with a vengeance, she radiated energy and began striking winners from difficult defensive positions, just as Sabalenka’s coach had warned. At 30-30, the score leveled at 4-4.
Soon came another break point, earned with a terrific passing shot. Could the American do it again? Yes she could — Sabalenka sent the ball long, handing Pegula the mental edge and a 5-4 lead, fully poised to serve out the set. Playing sharp, aggressive tennis, she sprinted from 2-4 down to 5-4 ahead. Three set points! And she converted the first straight away.
Sabalenka simply had no answer for Pegula’s relentless cross-court angle changes, conjured again and again out of nowhere. Trouble in paradise for the world No. 1. If Pegula kept this level, she looked fully capable of winning.
Sabalenka vs Pegula – Set 1 Stats
| Statistic | Sabalenka | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Dominance Ratio | 0.82 | 1.22 |
| Winners | 11 | 6 |
| Unforced Errors | 8 | 3 |
| Serve Rating | 243 | 274 |
| Aces | 2 | 2 |
| Double Faults | 1 | 2 |
| 1st Serve % | 74% (20/27) | 77% (23/30) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 65% (13/20) | 74% (17/23) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 43% (3/7) | 43% (3/7) |
| Break Points Saved | 33% (1/3) | 67% (2/3) |
| Service Games | 60% (3/5) | 80% (4/5) |
| Ace % | 7.4% | 6.7% |
| Double Fault % | 3.7% | 6.7% |
| Return Rating | 136 | 199 |
| 1st Return Points Won | 26% (6/23) | 35% (7/20) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 57% (4/7) | 57% (4/7) |
| Break Points Won | 33% (1/3) | 67% (2/3) |
| Return Games | 20% (1/5) | 40% (2/5) |
| Pressure Points | 33% (2/6) | 67% (4/6) |
| Service Points | 59% (16/27) | 67% (20/30) |
| Return Points | 33% (10/30) | 41% (11/27) |
| Net Points | 50% (5/10) | 50% (2/4) |
| Total Points | 46% (26/57) | 54% (31/57) |
| Max Points In A Row | 6 | 6 |
| Match Points Saved | 0 | 0 |
| Service Games Won | 60% (3/5) | 80% (4/5) |
| Return Games Won | 20% (1/5) | 40% (2/5) |
| Total Games Won | 40% (4/10) | 60% (6/10) |
| Max Games In A Row | 2 | 4 |
| Injury Timeouts | 0 | 0 |
| Set 1 Duration | 0h 37m | |
Pegula’s First Serve Starts to Sputter
The second set saw Sabalenka quickly reassert herself, breaking to take a 2-0 lead. Playing with sharper aggression, she held firmly for 3-0. It was as if she had realized she needed to focus fully and abandon the casual mindset of the first set — one that felt more like “let’s see how this pans out.” Underestimation, perhaps? Either way, that approach was gone as she stormed ahead to 4-1 with tennis worthy of a true World No. 1.
Could Pegula hold serve for 4-2? At that moment she looked shaken. Tennis — the mentally toughest sport in the world? This was proof. You can dominate a set, only to find yourself down 1-4 and 0-30 in the next while doing almost the same things. A looping forehand brought Pegula back to 30-all, and although she faced break point, a strong serve erased the danger. A rally winner from the American sealed the game, cutting the deficit to 2-4. She wasn’t finished yet.
But the storm didn’t subside. A Sabalenka double fault was immediately backed up by an ace, and the Belarusian marched on to 5-2.
A double fault from Jessica Pegula gave Sabalenka two points for the set (15-30), but it still went to deuce after Pegula squandered a game point. On her second opportunity, however, the American converted, saving a set point along the way. The American crowd roared. 3-5, with Sabalenka now serving for the set.
Blistering serves — though not aces — carried Sabalenka to her second and third set points. At 40-30, she risked a bold second serve and the 27-year-old sealed the set.
All in all, it was a logical outcome. She had simply raised her level. Only if she could sustain that gear in the third set could she hope to reach the final, because Pegula’s overall standard had remained high — except perhaps on first serve, where the Buffalo native had dipped compared to the opening set.
Sabalenka vs Pegula – Set 2 Stats
| Statistic | Sabalenka | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Dominance Ratio | 1.88 | 0.53 |
| Winners | 15 | 7 |
| Unforced Errors | 8 | 9 |
| Serve Rating | 312 | 234 |
| Aces | 3 | 1 |
| Double Faults | 1 | 2 |
| 1st Serve % | 62% (16/26) | 47% (14/30) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 75% (12/16) | 57% (8/14) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 73% (8/11) | 56% (9/16) |
| Break Points Saved | – (0/0) | 67% (2/3) |
| Service Games | 100% (5/5) | 75% (3/4) |
| Ace % | 11.5% | 3.3% |
| Double Fault % | 3.8% | 6.7% |
| Return Rating | 145 | 52 |
| 1st Return Points Won | 43% (6/14) | 25% (4/16) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 44% (7/16) | 27% (3/11) |
| Break Points Won | 33% (1/3) | – (0/0) |
| Return Games | 25% (1/4) | 0% (0/5) |
| Pressure Points | 33% (1/3) | 67% (2/3) |
| Service Points | 77% (20/26) | 57% (17/30) |
| Return Points | 43% (13/30) | 23% (6/26) |
| Net Points | 75% (6/8) | 70% (7/10) |
| Total Points | 59% (33/56) | 41% (23/56) |
| Max Points In A Row | 4 | 4 |
| Match Points Saved | 0 | 0 |
| Service Games Won | 100% (5/5) | 75% (3/4) |
| Return Games Won | 25% (1/4) | 0% (0/5) |
| Total Games Won | 67% (6/9) | 33% (3/9) |
| Max Games In A Row | 3 | 1 |
| Injury Timeouts | 0 | 0 |
| Set Duration | 0h 41m | |
Pegula Battles Back but Sabalenka Escapes
The third set opened with a break for Sabalenka. For the first time in the match, Pegula looked off the boil, and Sabalenka consolidated with a love hold. The crowd sensed their favorite was in danger of collapsing. Pegula, however, responded: 30-0, a clean rally win, and a convincing love hold of her own. Remarkable. Could she challenge Sabalenka’s serve, though? The mountain remained steep. A lucky net-cord bounce gave her hope at 15-30, but an ace from Sabalenka wiped it away. A gutsy second serve — almost an ace — steadied the game, and 3-1 it stood. Pegula quickly held again for 2-3, another love game on the board.
Midway through this deciding set, there was no rhythm at all. Points were short, fierce, and it felt like a Sabalenka-style match. Still, Pegula stayed alive, even earning two break points. On the first, she tried a reflex lob that Sabalenka smashed away; the second disappeared with a brilliant winner. A third chance came, and Pegula’s blistering return pushed her close, but Sabalenka counterattacked from the baseline. Arthur Ashe Stadium was in uproar. Somehow, Sabalenka’s serve carried her to a great escape and a 4-2 lead, despite Pegula’s brave resistance.
Pegula’s serve was harder to penetrate. Surely not a third consecutive love hold? Yes — 4-3. The American was fighting like a lion, but Sabalenka still had the cushion of the early break and the advantage of serving first. By now she had struck 38 winners, though impatience crept in, bringing the score to 30-all — and then a double fault. Pegula had a glimmer, but Sabalenka denied her with two excellent points. Advantage Sabalenka. Then Pegula produced a fabulous drop shot, dragging it back to deuce. The level was breathtaking. A bullet serve and a rally winner pushed Sabalenka through to 5-3 — harsh on Pegula, who was still trading blow for blow.
And sit down for this: another love hold from Pegula, 4-5. She had played just one poor game in the set — the very first — and it was still haunting her.
World No. 1 Survives the Final Onslaught from Pegula
Sabalenka now served for the match. Could she keep her composure? 15-0. A freak net-cord gave Pegula an easy volley. On the next point, a second serve: Sabalenka pounced and forced an error. 30-15. Another second serve, and Pegula dominated the rally — 30-all. Could the comeback happen? Ace No. 8! That little wrist snap for extra power, and match point. But Sabalenka botched a smash. Deuce. Another brilliant serve, followed by a backhand into the corner: match point No. 2! Pegula saved it again. A strong serve, match point No. 3!! Another cruise-missile delivery, and finally Sabalenka sealed it.
Pegula had pushed her to the edge with the third set stats all there to back it up, but the world No. 1 escaped trought the skin of her teeth. And on serve…
Sabalenka vs Pegula – Set 3 Stats
| Statistic | Sabalenka | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Dominance Ratio | 0.51 | 1.96 |
| Winners | 17 | 8 |
| Unforced Errors | 11 | 3 |
| Serve Rating | 286 | 300 |
| Aces | 3 | 0 |
| Double Faults | 2 | 0 |
| 1st Serve % | 67% (28/42) | 55% (12/22) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 75% (21/28) | 83% (10/12) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 43% (6/14) | 82% (9/11) |
| Break Points Saved | 100% (4/4) | 0% (0/1) |
| Service Games | 100% (5/5) | 80% (4/5) |
| Ace % | 7.1% | 0% |
| Double Fault % | 4.8% | 0% |
| Return Rating | 155 | 82 |
| 1st Return Points Won | 17% (2/12) | 25% (7/28) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 18% (2/11) | 57% (8/14) |
| Break Points Won | 100% (1/1) | 0% (0/4) |
| Return Games | 20% (1/5) | 0% (0/5) |
| Pressure Points | 100% (5/5) | 0% (0/5) |
| Service Points | 64% (27/42) | 82% (18/22) |
| Return Points | 18% (4/22) | 36% (15/42) |
| Net Points | 44% (4/9) | 100% (4/4) |
| Total Points | 48% (31/64) | 52% (33/64) |
| Max Points In A Row | 7 | 4 |
| Match Points Saved | 0 | 2 |
| Service Games Won | 100% (5/5) | 80% (4/5) |
| Return Games Won | 20% (1/5) | 0% (0/5) |
| Total Games Won | 60% (6/10) | 40% (4/10) |
| Max Games In A Row | 2 | 1 |
| Injury Timeouts | 0 | 0 |
| Set Duration | 0h 49m | |
Jessica Pegula can only look back with pride — even if that’s “un-American.” She truly should. She fell just short by the slimmest of margins. On the day, Aryna Sabalenka’s serve just would not give in.