The second semifinal in Cincinnati brought together two players on sharply rising trajectories: Italy’s Jasmine Paolini, fresh from her breakthrough Grand Slam final earlier in the season, and Russia’s Veronika Kudermetova, the newly crowned Wimbledon doubles champion with Elise Mertens and brimming with singles confidence. Their clash promised a fascinating contrast — Paolini’s intelligent, all-court craft against Kudermetova’s explosive baseline power. Both had navigated demanding paths to reach this stage, and under a late sun in Ohio, the stakes could not have been higher: a place in the 2025 Cincinnati Open final against world No. 1 Iga Świątek.
Jasmine Paolini sharp on serve, strikes late to take opening set 6–3
Jasmine Paolini opened confidently, holding serve to 15 and showing the consistency that would underpin her first set. Through the opening exchanges, both players found a steady rhythm: Kudermetova answered with strong serving of her own, including a love hold for 3–3, while Paolini looked equally solid, backing her deliveries with quick first-strike tennis. Neither faced a break point through the first six games, reflecting how evenly balanced the baseline rallies were.
The match tilted at 3–3, when Paolini surged through her service game to love and carried that momentum straight into the return. For the first time Kudermetova faltered, dropping behind 0–40. Paolini seized her chance immediately, converting the only break point of the set to move ahead 5–3. With the initiative in hand, the Italian showed no nerves when serving for it, closing out to 15 for a composed 6–3 finish.
What stood out was Paolini’s efficiency — she held comfortably throughout, twice to love, and never allowed Kudermetova even a look at a break point. Kudermetova’s lone lapse on serve proved costly, as Paolini’s clean, aggressive returning punished her immediately. By taking her single opportunity and protecting her own service games with authority, Paolini established full control and secured the first set with a clinical edge.
Kudermetova vs Paolini – Set 1 Stats
| Statistic | Kudermetova | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Dominance Ratio | 0.39 | 2.56 |
| Serve Rating | 278 | 347 |
| Aces | 1 | 1 |
| Double Faults | 0 | 1 |
| 1st Serve % | 61% (11/18) | 78% (18/23) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 55% (6/11) | 89% (16/18) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 86% (6/7) | 80% (4/5) |
| Break Points Saved | 0% (0/1) | – (0/0) |
| Service Games | 75% (3/4) | 100% (5/5) |
| Ace % | 5.6% | 4.3% |
| Double Fault % | 0% | 4.3% |
| Return Rating | 31 | 184 |
| 1st Return Points Won | 11% (2/18) | 45% (5/11) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 20% (1/5) | 14% (1/7) |
| Break Points Won | – (0/0) | 100% (1/1) |
| Return Games | 0% (0/5) | 25% (1/4) |
| Pressure Points | 0% (0/1) | 100% (1/1) |
| Service Points | 67% (12/18) | 87% (20/23) |
| Return Points | 13% (3/23) | 33% (6/18) |
| Total Points | 37% (15/41) | 63% (26/41) |
| Max Points In A Row | 4 | 10 |
| Match Points Saved | 0 | 0 |
| Service Games | 75% (3/4) | 100% (5/5) |
| Return Games | 0% (0/5) | 25% (1/4) |
| Total Games | 33% (3/9) | 67% (6/9) |
| Max Games In A Row | 1 | 3 |
| Set 1 Duration | Oh 23m | |
Kudermetova battles through a topsy-turvy second set to level match
The second set was far more turbulent than the opener. Veronika Kudermetova made the stronger start, holding with authority in the first game. Paolini immediately replied, digging out a hold after saving a break point, before the first real momentum swings arrived. At 2-2 the Italian, however, converted her own break chance in a deuce battle and consolidated for 4–2.
From there the set became a test of nerves. Kudermetova held firm for 3–4 and pressed again on return, but Paolini kept herself in front 4-5 with another gritty service game. Returning at 4–5, Kudermetova was staring down defeat, yet she raised her game brilliantly: after letting slip two break points in a tense exchange, she turned the tables on her third chance, breaking Paolini to pull level at 5–5. That dramatic shift swung momentum her way. Kudermetova then powered through a confident hold for 6–5, but Paolini resisted one more time to force a tie-break.
The breaker was one-way traffic. Kudermetova grabbed an early mini-break for 2–1, held both of her service points for 4–1, ceded just one on Paolini’s serve (4–2), then pounced again for 5–2. From there she was clinical, serving out 7–2.
This set highlighted Kudermetova’s resilience at 4–5, and her composed tie-break performance, proved decisive. The Russian’s ability to save big points and flip pressure back on Paolini turned the set around and leveled the match.
Kudermetova vs Paolini – Set Two Stats
| Statistic | Kudermetova | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Dominance Ratio | 1.05 | 0.95 |
| Serve Rating | 268 | 273 |
| Aces | 8 | 1 |
| Double Faults | 3 | 1 |
| 1st Serve % | 57% (26/46) | 68% (28/41) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 88% (23/26) | 68% (19/28) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 35% (7/20) | 54% (7/13) |
| Break Points Saved | 0% (0/1) | 67% (2/3) |
| Service Games | 83% (5/6) | 83% (5/6) |
| Ace % | 17.4% | 2.4% |
| Double Fault % | 6.5% | 2.4% |
| Return Rating | 128 | 194 |
| 1st Return Points Won | 32% (9/28) | 12% (3/26) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 46% (6/13) | 65% (13/20) |
| Break Points Won | 33% (1/3) | 100% (1/1) |
| Return Games | 17% (1/6) | 17% (1/6) |
| Pressure Points | 25% (1/4) | 75% (3/4) |
| Service Points | 65% (30/46) | 63% (26/41) |
| Return Points | 37% (15/41) | 35% (16/46) |
| Total Points | 52% (45/87) | 48% (42/87) |
| Max Points In A Row | 4 | 6 |
| Match Points Saved | 0 | 0 |
| Service Games Won | 83% (5/6) | 83% (5/6) |
| Return Games Won | 17% (1/6) | 17% (1/6) |
| Total Games Won | 50% (6/12) | 50% (6/12) |
| Max Games In A Row | 3 | 3 |
| Set 2 Duration | 1h 23m | |
Jasmine Paolini’s Experience Pays Off
Paolini started the decider with a statement love hold, then Kudermetova steadied from 15–30 to square it at 1–1. The Italian kept the initiative in Game 3, racing to 40–0 and closing to 30 for 2–1. Kudermetova again matched that serving level, holding with authority for 2–2.
So far it was clean, disciplined tennis on both sides, with neither facing a break point. Paolini, though, looked slightly sharper in her first-strike patterns, and in the fifth game an intelligent, extremely deep ball opened the court and pushed her toward a 3–2 advantage. The question now: could Veronika Kudermetova find another reply?
It looked like it — an extended backhand battle was won by the doubles major champion at the 2025 Wimbledon Championships alongside Elise Mertens. Yet Paolini locked in, the 5-ft-4 Italian projected herself into orbit to a 15–40 advantage. And there it was again: a piercing scream followed a heavy, deep ball landing flush on the baseline, and the break materialized. Paolini surged ahead 4–2.
A slightly hesitant game point from Paolini slipped away and the game drifted to deuce. Then came perhaps the loudest scream of the tournament—Kudermetova roaring after carving out break point with a slick rally winner. She couldn’t convert. Back to deuce; this had become a tug-of-war. Kudermetova kept swinging: a forceful forehand into the corner earned a second break point, only for Paolini’s forehand to kiss the baseline. Third deuce. Another Kudermetova forehand winner brought a third break point, but Paolini answered with a strong serve to save it, then uncorked a brilliant counter-attacking backhand to finally close. Hold secured: Paolini up 5–2. Poor Veronika Kudermetova—she threw everything at that 11-minute game and still came up short.
Kudermetova held for 3–5, leaving all to play for on Paolini’s serve. This time, though, the energetic Italian wasn’t having any of it. She raced to 40–0 and three match points, needing only one—delivered with a strong first serve—to close the contest.
The scoreline might suggest Veronika Kudermetova unraveled in the third set, but that was far from the case. Time and again, Paolini produced sshots that landed flush on the baseline, defusing the Russian’s fightback. In the end, it was Paolini’s experience—sharpened by her recent runs into the money end of big tournaments—that carried her through. As she put it afterwards: “I had to stay in the present.” That present now is a 2025 Cincinnati final sealed against Iga Świątek.
Kudermetova vs Paolini – Deciding Set Stats
| Statistic | Kudermetova | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Dominance Ratio | 0.73 | 1.38 |
| Serve Rating | 223 | 305 |
| Aces | 1 | 0 |
| Double Faults | 1 | 0 |
| 1st Serve % | 56% (10/18) | 68% (21/31) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 70% (7/10) | 67% (14/21) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 30% (3/10) | 70% (7/10) |
| Break Points Saved | 0% (0/1) | 100% (3/3) |
| Service Games | 67% (2/3) | 100% (4/4) |
| Ace % | 5.6% | 0% |
| Double Fault % | 5.6% | 0% |
| Return Rating | 63 | 233 |
| 1st Return Points Won | 33% (7/21) | 30% (3/10) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 30% (3/10) | 70% (7/10) |
| Break Points Won | 0% (0/3) | 100% (1/1) |
| Return Games | 0% (0/4) | 33% (1/3) |
| Pressure Points | 0% (0/4) | 100% (4/4) |
| Service Points | 56% (10/18) | 68% (21/31) |
| Return Points | 32% (10/31) | 44% (8/18) |
| Total Points | 41% (20/49) | 59% (29/49) |
| Max Points In A Row | 3 | 5 |
| Match Points Saved | 0 | 0 |
| Service Games Won | 67% (2/3) | 100% (4/4) |
| Return Games Won | 0% (0/4) | 33% (1/3) |
| Total Games Won | 29% (2/7) | 71% (5/7) |
| Max Games In A Row | 1 | 3 |
| Injury Timeouts | 0 | 0 |
| Set Duration | 0h 45m | |