Naomi Osaka and Karolina Muchova delivered a high-quality US Open 2025 quarterfinal clash, continuing their growing rivalry. Just last year, Muchova defeated Osaka at the US Open, but in Melbourne earlier this year, the Japanese star turned the tables (1-6, 6-3, 6-3). This time in New York, the stage was set for another battle of fine margins.
A First Set Decided by the Smallest Margins
The opening set unfolded as a war of attrition. Both players dominated behind their serves, offering few chances on return. At 5-4, however, Osaka raised her level with a burst of aggression, breaking through Muchova’s defenses to secure the set 6-4 on her second opportunity. For Muchova, it was a single lapse in the tenth game that proved costly, as she left the court for a medical timeout, visibly frustrated.
Muchova vs Osaka – Set 1 Stats
| Statistic | Muchova | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Dominance Ratio | 1.15 | 0.87 |
| Winners | 8 | 11 |
| Unforced Errors | 4 | 6 |
| Serve Rating | 294 | 299 |
| Aces | 2 | 3 |
| Double Faults | 0 | 0 |
| 1st Serve % | 83% (19/23) | 60% (18/30) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 79% (15/19) | 78% (14/18) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 50% (2/4) | 58% (7/12) |
| Break Points Saved | 50% (1/2) | 100% (1/1) |
| Service Games | 80% (4/5) | 100% (5/5) |
| Ace % | 8.7% | 10% |
| Double Fault % | 0% | 0% |
| Return Rating | 64 | 141 |
| 1st Return Points Won | 22% (4/18) | 21% (4/19) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 42% (5/12) | 50% (2/4) |
| Break Points Won | 0% (0/1) | 50% (1/2) |
| Return Games | 0% (0/5) | 20% (1/5) |
| Pressure Points | 33% (1/3) | 67% (2/3) |
| Service Points | 74% (17/23) | 70% (21/30) |
| Return Points | 30% (9/30) | 26% (6/23) |
| Net Points | 86% (6/7) | 67% (2/3) |
| Total Points | 49% (26/53) | 51% (27/53) |
| Max Points In A Row | 4 | 6 |
| Match Points Saved | 0 | 0 |
| Service Games Won | 80% (4/5) | 100% (5/5) |
| Return Games Won | 0% (0/5) | 20% (1/5) |
| Total Games Won | 40% (4/10) | 60% (6/10) |
| Max Games In A Row | 1 | 2 |
| Set Duration | 0h 37m | |
A Second Set of Relentless Tension
The second set pushed both athletes to their limits. In the early games, service wavered on both sides, but stability returned as each player held firm until Muchova broke for a 5-4 lead. Yet the Czech could not close it out. Osaka responded with composure, forcing a tiebreak that showcased the razor-thin margins separating the two.
There, Osaka’s precision made the difference. A forehand clipping the line and a narrow Muchova miss swung the momentum her way, creating a decisive three-point cushion. From 4-2 up, Osaka accelerated to 7-3, sealing the set and the match. Muchova had fought with quality and grit, but Osaka’s consistency throughout the match proved unbreakable.
Muchova vs Osaka – Set 2 Stats
| Statistic | Muchova | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Dominance Ratio | 0.90 | 1.11 |
| Winners | 13 | 19 |
| Unforced Errors | 11 | 13 |
| Serve Rating | 235 | 242 |
| Aces | 2 | 2 |
| Double Faults | 0 | 2 |
| 1st Serve % | 65% (22/34) | 69% (33/48) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 68% (15/22) | 73% (24/33) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 33% (4/12) | 33% (5/15) |
| Break Points Saved | 0% (0/2) | 67% (4/6) |
| Service Games | 67% (4/6) | 67% (4/6) |
| Ace % | 5.9% | 4.2% |
| Double Fault % | 0% | 4.2% |
| Return Rating | 160 | 232 |
| 1st Return Points Won | 27% (9/33) | 32% (7/22) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 67% (10/15) | 67% (8/12) |
| Break Points Won | 33% (2/6) | 100% (2/2) |
| Return Games | 33% (2/6) | 33% (2/6) |
| Pressure Points | 25% (2/8) | 75% (6/8) |
| Service Points | 56% (19/34) | 60% (29/48) |
| Return Points | 40% (19/48) | 44% (15/34) |
| Net Points | 77% (10/13) | 57% (4/7) |
| Total Points | 46% (38/82) | 54% (44/82) |
| Max Points In A Row | 4 | 6 |
| Match Points Saved | 1 | 0 |
| Service Games Won | 67% (4/6) | 67% (4/6) |
| Return Games Won | 33% (2/6) | 33% (2/6) |
| Total Games Won | 50% (6/12) | 50% (6/12) |
| Max Games In A Row | 2 | 2 |
| Injury Timeouts | 1 | 0 |
| Set Duration | 1h 07m | |
Confidence Restored, A Bigger Test Ahead
For Osaka, the victory carries deep significance. She will now face Amanda Anisimova—a player she has never beaten—in a semifinal that promises fireworks. Yet Osaka is relishing the moment. In her post-match ESPN interview, she reflected on how doubts had crept in at Wimbledon, seeing Belinda Bencic and other mothers make strong comebacks while she struggled. Reaching her first Grand Slam semifinal since her return has silenced those doubts and restored her belief.
With sparkling confidence, Osaka waved to the fans and signed off from the TV studio, but not from the tournament. Her form, her mindset, and her joy on court signal that Naomi Osaka is back where she belongs—at the very summit of the women’s game.