Pegula’s precision serve sets the tone
Jessica Pegula made a statement start at the Cincinnati Open, cruising past Australia’s Kimberly Birrell 6-4, 6-3 to reach the Round of 32. The No.4 seed—runner-up here in 2024—delivered a rock-solid service performance, winning 69% of points behind her delivery and breaking Birrell three times in just over an hour.
Birrell struggled to match Pegula’s consistency, landing only 41% of first serves and committing six double faults. The American seized the decisive break at 5-4 in the opening set and never looked back, sealing the win with a single break in set two.
Match Stats – Birrell vs Pegula
| Statistic | Birrell | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Dominance Ratio | 0.55 | 1.82 |
| Serve Rating | 210 | 301 |
| Aces | 2 | 5 |
| Double Faults | 9 | 0 |
| 1st Serve % | 46% (26/57) | 67% (35/52) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 69% (18/26) | 80% (28/35) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 35% (11/31) | 59% (10/17) |
| Break Points Saved | 67% (6/9) | 0% (0/1) |
| Service Games | 67% (6/9) | 90% (9/10) |
| Ace % | 3.5% | 9.6% |
| Double Fault % | 15.8% | 0% |
| Return Rating | 171 | 162 |
| 1st Return Points Won | 20% (7/35) | 31% (8/26) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 41% (7/17) | 65% (20/31) |
| Break Points Won | 100% (1/1) | 33% (3/9) |
| Return Games | 10% (1/10) | 33% (3/9) |
| Pressure Points | 70% (7/10) | 30% (3/10) |
| Service Points | 51% (29/57) | 73% (38/52) |
| Return Points | 27% (14/52) | 49% (28/57) |
| Total Points | 39% (43/109) | 61% (66/109) |
| Match Points Saved | 2 | 0 |
| Max Points In A Row | 4 | 10 |
| Return Games Won | 10% (1/10) | 33% (3/9) |
| Total Games | 37% (7/19) | 63% (12/19) |
| Max Games In A Row | 3 | 3 |
| Injury Timeouts | 0 | 0 |
| Match Duration | 1h 21m | |
Pegula now faces 31st seed Magda Linette for a place in the last 16.
Navarro’s hardcourt woes continue
While Pegula advanced smoothly, fellow American Emma Navarro endured a shock first-round exit. The 23-year-old fell in three sets to Germany’s Ella Seidel, marking her third loss in four matches this summer.
Match Stats – Navarro vs Seidel
| Statistic | Navarro | Seidel |
|---|---|---|
| Dominance Ratio | 1.02 | 0.98 |
| Serve Rating | 257 | 241 |
| Aces | 3 | 3 |
| Double Faults | 5 | 3 |
| 1st Serve % | 66% (57/87) | 54% (45/83) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 65% (37/57) | 71% (32/45) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 57% (17/30) | 47% (18/38) |
| Break Points Saved | 60% (6/10) | 60% (6/10) |
| Service Games | 71% (10/14) | 69% (9/13) |
| Ace % | 3.4% | 3.6% |
| Double Fault % | 5.7% | 3.6% |
| Return Rating | 153 | 147 |
| 1st Return Points Won | 29% (13/45) | 35% (20/57) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 53% (20/38) | 43% (13/30) |
| Break Points Won | 40% (4/10) | 40% (4/10) |
| Return Games | 31% (4/13) | 29% (4/14) |
| Pressure Points | 50% (10/20) | 50% (10/20) |
| Service Points | 61% (53/87) | 60% (50/83) |
| Return Points | 40% (33/83) | 39% (34/87) |
| Total Points | 51% (86/170) | 49% (84/170) |
| Match Points Saved | 1 | 0 |
| Max Points In A Row | 8 | 9 |
| Return Games Won | 31% (4/13) | 29% (4/14) |
| Total Games | 52% (14/27) | 48% (13/27) |
| Max Games In A Row | 5 | 5 |
| Injury Timeouts | 0 | 0 |
| Match Duration | 2h 18m | |
Navarro, a semifinalist at last year’s US Open, will arrive in New York with fragile form and the added pressure of defending a large haul of ranking points. A significant dip in the standings looms if she cannot rediscover her rhythm on hardcourts.
Cincinnati shaping the US Open picture
For Jessica Pegula, the win in Cincinnati offers a timely boost following a surprise early loss to Anastasija Sevastova in Montreal. As one of the top contenders heading into the US Open, a deep run here could restore momentum and confidence.
Navarro’s challenge will be to reset quickly, with just weeks to prepare for the season’s final major. Her defeat underlines the unpredictable nature of the US hardcourt swing—where form, confidence, and composure often prove decisive.