Jessica Pegula came into the first semi-final of the 2025 WTA Finals looking every bit the composed contender. The American, backed by an equally partisan crowd and impeccable form, faced Elena Rybakina, the group-stage standout who had breezed through with three straight wins. The winner of this clash would go on to face either Aryna Sabalenka or Amanda Anisimova in Sunday’s championship match — a prize that hung heavily over every rally.
Pegula Strikes First as Rybakina Struggles to Settle
At one-all, early nerves showed their teeth. Rybakina squandered an easy volley at the net, then handed over another point with a routine error. Even when she found the touch to finish a rally smartly at the net, it wasn’t enough to stop Pegula from pouncing on another mishit. The American got what she wanted: an early break and a grip on the tempo. Pegula looked compact, steady, and mentally settled, while Rybakina’s rhythm was unconvincing — a flashback to the inconsistency that plagued her two or three months ago.
Yet Rybakina wasn’t without intent. She was clearly trying something new — closing in on the net with purpose, taking time away from Pegula, and finding success in the fourth game. When Pegula threw in a double fault, the door cracked open. On breakpoint, Rybakina read the second serve perfectly and unleashed a fierce inside-out forehand that bit the line. The crowd gasped, Pegula froze, and just like that, it was 2-all.
But the American corner had done their homework. Pegula’s team seemed to have drilled a simple mantra: attack Rybakina’s serve. From the next game onward, Pegula stepped in on returns, taking the ball early and forcing errors. It worked to perfection. Another break arrived quickly after Rybakina mistimed a forehand, and the balance of power shifted again. The American had found a soft spot — and she pressed on it.
“Come on!” Pegula shouted just moments before holding for 4–2, her confidence spilling into every step. Across the net, Rybakina looked unsettled, muttering toward her box. She rubbed her right shoulder — the same one that had troubled her earlier this autumn — perhaps feeling a twinge. The serve speed still registered high, but her motion lacked fluidity. Even so, she found enough resolve to produce a solid hold for 3–4, a reminder that she wasn’t folding yet.
Pegula, though, was immaculate. Her forehand found the corners, her backhand absorbed everything, and her footwork was crisp. At 5–4, she earned the right to serve for the opening set — and the tension in the arena thinned to anticipation.
After just 41 minutes, Pegula sealed the set, 6–4. Rybakina fought gamely at 30-all, mixing two unforced errors with two moments of brilliance, but an ace gave Pegula set point, and a missed backhand from the Kazakh handed it over. It was the perfect snapshot of the set: Pegula poised and measured, Rybakina too uneven to sustain pressure.
For the last player to qualify for these Finals, the mountain had suddenly grown steeper. Pegula, the hometown hope from Buffalo, had struck first blood — and she did it by out-thinking, out-returning, and outlasting a player still searching for her full stride.
Pegula vs Rybakina – Set One Stats
| Statistic | Pegula | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Dominance Ratio | 1.06 | 0.95 |
| Serve Rating | 250 | 236 |
| Aces | 0 | 5 |
| Double Faults | 1 | 0 |
| 1st Serve % | 54% (20/37) | 61% (17/28) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 70% (14/20) | 65% (11/17) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 47% (8/17) | 45% (5/11) |
| Break Points Saved | 0% (0/1) | 33% (1/3) |
| Service Games | 80% (4/5) | 60% (3/5) |
| Ace % | 0% | 17.9% |
| Double Fault % | 2.7% | 0% |
| Return Rating | 197 | 203 |
| 1st Return Points Won | 35% (6/17) | 30% (6/20) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 55% (6/11) | 53% (9/17) |
| Break Points Won | 67% (2/3) | 100% (1/1) |
| Return Games | 40% (2/5) | 20% (1/5) |
| Pressure Points | 50% (2/4) | 50% (2/4) |
| Service Points | 59% (22/37) | 57% (16/28) |
| Return Points | 43% (12/28) | 41% (15/37) |
| Total Points | 52% (34/65) | 48% (31/65) |
| Match Points Saved | 0 | 0 |
| Max Points In A Row | 5 | 4 |
| Max Games In A Row | 2 | 1 |
| Set 1 Duration | 0h41m | |
Rybakina Responds — And Pegula’s Focus Falters in a Turbulent Second Set
After a brief visit to the locker room, Elena Rybakina re-emerged looking composed and purposeful. She held serve with ease to open the second set — a calm, efficient start that suggested her shoulder wasn’t hindering her for now.
Pegula, meanwhile, faced an early test. Down 0–40, she showed the resilience that has marked her late-season surge, reeling off four straight points to reach advantage. The game stretched through multiple deuces, Rybakina missing a key return under pressure, and eventually the American escaped. 1–1, but not without strain. The climb ahead still loomed — “Pegula Peak,” as it were — and Rybakina seemed ready to start the ascent.
Then, unexpectedly, Pegula’s composure cracked. Serving at 0–30, she showed visible frustration, shaking her head and muttering toward her box. Rybakina, ever the quiet opportunist, seized the chance — breaking to go up 3–1 and soon stepping to the line to serve for a 4–1 lead.
The game was tight. At 30-all, Pegula dug in to win a long, gritty rally, but Rybakina responded with her second ace of the set to earn game point. She missed the next, sending it back to deuce. Two deuces later, Rybakina finally consolidated the break. 4–1, and Pegula’s frustration was now audible.
The American muttered to herself again, seemingly fighting a wave of negativity — perhaps fatigue, perhaps nerves. Rybakina’s box, led by coach Stefano Vukov, looked tense as well. He rarely appears satisfied, but even he seemed on edge.
Pegula stopped the slide with a strong hold for 2–4, but Rybakina answered instantly — a love game, her cleanest of the match, stretching the gap to 5–2. The match looked destined for a deciding set.
Or was it?
Pegula found her spark again, holding for 3–5, then staging a sudden surge. From 30–0 down on Rybakina’s serve, she won four consecutive points, breaking back with a deep return on a second serve. Out of nowhere, the American was back on serve. Rybakina, visibly tight, had let it all slip.
In the following game, Pegula went on the attack, hammering a fierce inside-out forehand to earn breakpoint. But Rybakina steadied — deuce. Then came set point for the Kazakh, squandered by flat footwork and a mistimed forehand close to her body. The tension rose. Pegula defended with courage, but Rybakina unleashed an incredible running forehand pass to reclaim the upper hand. Deuce again. Then another. And another.
Finally, on her second set point, Rybakina let out a rare flicker of emotion — the unconscious tongue-out celebration, subtle but telling. She’d done it the struggling way: the match was level at one set all.
Pegula vs Rybakina – Set Two Stats
| Statistic | Pegula | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Dominance Ratio | 0.79 | 1.27 |
| Serve Rating | 237 | 255 |
| Aces | 0 | 5 |
| Double Faults | 0 | 4 |
| 1st Serve % | 78% (31/40) | 59% (19/32) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 55% (17/31) | 84% (16/19) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 44% (4/9) | 31% (4/13) |
| Break Points Saved | 71% (5/7) | 0% (0/1) |
| Service Games | 60% (3/5) | 80% (4/5) |
| Ace % | 0% | 15.6% |
| Double Fault % | 0% | 12.5% |
| Return Rating | 205 | 170 |
| 1st Return Points Won | 16% (3/19) | 45% (14/31) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 69% (9/13) | 56% (5/9) |
| Break Points Won | 100% (1/1) | 29% (2/7) |
| Return Games | 20% (1/5) | 40% (2/5) |
| Pressure Points | 75% (6/8) | 25% (2/8) |
| Service Points | 53% (21/40) | 63% (20/32) |
| Return Points | 38% (12/32) | 48% (19/40) |
| Total Points | 46% (33/72) | 54% (39/72) |
| Match Points Saved | 0 | 0 |
| Max Points In A Row | 4 | 5 |
| Max Games In A Row | 2 | 3 |
| Match Set Duration | 0h50m | |
By the end of the set, her stat sheet was a contradiction — nearly 50 unforced errors over both sets, yet balanced by flashes of brilliance. Pegula’s level, by contrast, had dipped, especially on serve. What had looked like a straight-line climb for the American was now an open contest, and Rybakina had rediscovered her fight just in time.
Rybakina Holds Her Nerve to Edge Pegula in a Thrilling WTA Finals Semi-Final
In the deciding set, it was all hands on deck for Elena Rybakina in the third game. Under pressure from a reinvigorated Jessica Pegula, she was forced to dig deep, but somehow scraped through a tense service hold. Pegula, in contrast, looked comfortable on serve, steadying for 2–2 as the crowd began to sense the tension building. Who would blink first?
Rybakina, serving with purpose, fired down another ace and cruised to 3–2. Pegula, hindered slightly by serving second in the decider, had to chase, and that mental burden showed. A stray forehand handed Rybakina two early chances at 0–30, and then 15–40. The Kazakh was closing in on the breakthrough.
Pegula’s first serve clipped the line but was called wide — the narrowest of margins. From the box, Stefano Vukov stood tall, sensing the turning point. When Rybakina converted, the equation became clear: she would serve for a 5–2 lead and the match.
But if nerves had haunted her before, they returned right on cue. Pegula pounced, racing to 0–30 with sharp returns, then 0–40 after a forehand error from the Kazakh. Rybakina saved one breakpoint with a backhand down the line, but on the next, Pegula struck cleanly to break back. The American roared in relief; Rybakina hung her head as Vukov’s expression tightened — another game thrown away.
At 3–4, Pegula had the momentum and the belief. She pressed forward, landing a brilliant backhand winner at 15-all, approaching the net with intent. It looked like the match was tilting her way. Rybakina, however, wasn’t done. At 40–30, she wrestled through another bruising rally, blasting a forehand to force deuce. Then came a gasp from the stands — Pegula missed the easiest of forehands in a fierce enough rally, inches from the open court. The chance vanished.
Moments later, after an excruciatingly long exchange, Rybakina broke again, this time decisively. Serving for the match at 5–3, she faced an early scare at 0–15, but a quick ace steadied the ship. Pegula, visibly annoyed at her earlier miss, couldn’t recover. Rybakina closed it out with her trademark composure — an ace, a clenched fist, and a quiet exhale.
Pegula vs Rybakina – Deciding Set Stats
| Statistic | Pegula | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Dominance Ratio | 0.75 | 1.33 |
| Serve Rating | 232 | 286 |
| Aces | 1 | 5 |
| Double Faults | 0 | 1 |
| 1st Serve % | 75% (18/24) | 72% (21/29) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 56% (10/18) | 67% (14/21) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 50% (3/6) | 63% (5/8) |
| Break Points Saved | 33% (1/3) | 75% (3/4) |
| Service Games | 50% (2/4) | 80% (4/5) |
| Ace % | 4.2% | 17.2% |
| Double Fault % | 0% | 3.4% |
| Return Rating | 116 | 211 |
| 1st Return Points Won | 33% (7/21) | 44% (8/18) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 38% (3/8) | 50% (3/6) |
| Break Points Won | 25% (1/4) | 67% (2/3) |
| Return Games | 20% (1/5) | 50% (2/4) |
| Pressure Points | 29% (2/7) | 71% (5/7) |
| Service Points | 54% (13/24) | 66% (19/29) |
| Return Points | 34% (10/29) | 46% (11/24) |
| Total Points | 43% (23/53) | 57% (30/53) |
| Match Points Saved | 0 | 0 |
| Max Points In A Row | 3 | 4 |
| Max Games In A Row | 1 | 2 |
| Set 3 Duration | 0h36m | |
When Rollercoasters Stop
The crowd rose as the handshake came. “Good match! Thank you,” Rybakina said warmly at the net. Pegula nodded, knowing she had left her fight on the court. In the end she was perhaps just a tiny bit less sharp on the day than in her previous matches.
For Rybakina, it was a night of contradictions — raw power mixed with fragility, flashes of brilliance countered by moments of doubt — yet, in the end, it was enough. She moves into the WTA Finals 2025 championship match, where she will face the winner of Aryna Sabalenka vs Amanda Anisimova, with her confidence finally restored.