Aryna Sabalenka survived a fierce challenge from Jessica Pegula to win 6–4, 2–6, 6–3 in her second WTA Finals group-stage match in Riyadh. The World No. 1 had to rally from a break down in the final set, reeling off four straight games to secure victory after nearly two hours of play. The result leaves the Belarusian all but through to the semifinals — needing only a single set in her final match to clinch qualification.
Coming into Riyadh with an 8–3 lead in their head-to-head, Sabalenka extended it to 9–3 and reminded the American that even when her game wavers, her fight rarely does.
Sabalenka Clinches the Opening Set on Fifth Set Point
The match began with Sabalenka under early pressure, facing a break point in only her second service game. Pegula, striking cleanly behind 71% first serves, dictated several early exchanges. But Sabalenka’s deep, aggressive returns gradually turned the tide, forcing forehand errors and earning the first break in the sixth game.
Serving for the set at 5–3, Sabalenka faltered, squandering her first set point and dropping serve as Pegula broke back. Yet when the World No. 5 stepped up to level, Sabalenka struck again — breaking decisively on her fifth set point to take it 6–4 after 45 minutes of bruising baseline rallies.
Sabalenka vs Pegula – Set One Stats
| Statistic | Sabalenka | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Dominance Ratio | 1.20 | 0.83 |
| Winners | 14 | 5 |
| Unforced Errors | 17 | 7 |
| Serve Rating | 273 | 255 |
| Aces | 2 | 0 |
| Double Faults | 0 | 0 |
| 1st Serve % | 63% (20/32) | 71% (24/34) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 70% (14/20) | 54% (13/24) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 58% (7/12) | 70% (7/10) |
| Break Points Saved | 50% (1/2) | 75% (6/8) |
| Service Games | 80% (4/5) | 60% (3/5) |
| Ace % | 6.3% | 0% |
| Double Fault % | 0% | 0% |
| Return Rating | 141 | 142 |
| 1st Return Points Won | 46% (11/24) | 30% (6/20) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 30% (3/10) | 42% (5/12) |
| Break Points Won | 25% (2/8) | 50% (1/2) |
| Return Games | 40% (2/5) | 20% (1/5) |
| Pressure Points | 30% (3/10) | 70% (7/10) |
| Service Points | 66% (21/32) | 59% (20/34) |
| Return Points | 41% (14/34) | 34% (11/32) |
| Total Points | 53% (35/66) | 47% (31/66) |
| Match Points Saved | 0 | 0 |
| Max Points In A Row | 7 | 5 |
| Total Games | 60% (6/10) | 40% (4/10) |
| Max Games In A Row | 3 | 2 |
| Set 1 Duration | 0h45m | |
Pegula Storms Back as Sabalenka’s Level Dips
Pegula flipped the script early in the second, surging through nine straight points and breaking twice to lead 3–1. Sabalenka’s rhythm evaporated — her winner count fell from 14 to just five, while unforced errors mounted. Pegula’s serve became unshakeable, improving to 82% first-serve accuracy and keeping Sabalenka off balance with pace and precision. The American closed out the set 6–2, leaving the World No. 1 rattled.
Sabalenka vs Pegula – Set Two Stats
| Statistic | Sabalenka | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Dominance Ratio | 0.59 | 1.69 |
| Winners | 5 | 12 |
| Unforced Errors | 13 | 7 |
| Serve Rating | 231 | 296 |
| Aces | 2 | 2 |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 |
| 1st Serve % | 70% (14/20) | 63% (17/27) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 43% (6/14) | 82% (14/17) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 67% (4/6) | 50% (5/10) |
| Break Points Saved | 0% (0/2) | 100% (4/4) |
| Service Games | 50% (2/4) | 100% (4/4) |
| Ace % | 10% | 7.4% |
| Double Fault % | 5% | 3.7% |
| Return Rating | 68 | 240 |
| 1st Return Points Won | 18% (3/17) | 57% (8/14) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 50% (5/10) | 33% (2/6) |
| Break Points Won | 0% (0/4) | 100% (2/2) |
| Return Games | 0% (0/4) | 50% (2/4) |
| Pressure Points | 0% (0/6) | 100% (6/6) |
| Service Points | 50% (10/20) | 70% (19/27) |
| Return Points | 30% (8/27) | 50% (10/20) |
| Total Points | 38% (18/47) | 62% (29/47) |
| Match Points Saved | 0 | 0 |
| Max Points In A Row | 5 | 9 |
| Total Games | 25% (2/8) | 75% (6/8) |
| Max Games In A Row | 1 | 3 |
| Set 2 Duration | 0h 33m | |
The World No. 1 Rediscovers Control
The decider began with Sabalenka reasserting herself, holding to love and creating an immediate break chance. Pegula fended it off and even broke first in the third game, but Sabalenka’s response was ruthless. With her trademark power restored, she swept through four consecutive games, converting two of three break points and giving Pegula no look at a comeback.
Pegula clawed one game back late, but Sabalenka shut the door with a composed service hold — sealing a 6–4, 2–6, 6–3 victory. The four-time Grand Slam champion finished with 31 winners against 30 unforced errors and held ten of her fourteen service games.
Sabalenka vs Pegula – Set 3 Stats
| Statistic | Sabalenka | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Dominance Ratio | 1.50 | 0.67 |
| Winners | 9 | 6 |
| Serve Rating | 257 | 201 |
| Aces | 0 | 1 |
| Double Faults | 5 | 1 |
| 1st Serve % | 47% (14/30) | 75% (24/32) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 79% (11/14) | 63% (15/24) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 56% (9/16) | 13% (1/8) |
| Break Points Saved | 75% (3/4) | 50% (2/4) |
| Service Games | 80% (4/5) | 50% (2/4) |
| Ace % | 0% | 3.1% |
| Double Fault % | 16.7% | 3.1% |
| Return Rating | 226 | 110 |
| 1st Return Points Won | 38% (9/24) | 21% (3/14) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 88% (7/8) | 44% (7/16) |
| Break Points Won | 50% (2/4) | 25% (1/4) |
| Return Games | 50% (2/4) | 20% (1/5) |
| Pressure Points | 63% (5/8) | 38% (3/8) |
| Service Points | 67% (20/30) | 50% (16/32) |
| Return Points | 50% (16/32) | 33% (10/30) |
| Total Points | 58% (36/62) | 42% (26/62) |
| Match Points Saved | 0 | 0 |
| Max Points In A Row | 5 | 3 |
| Total Games | 67% (6/9) | 33% (3/9) |
| Max Games In A Row | 4 | 2 |
| Deciding Set Duration | 0h 46m | |
The Road Ahead
With two group wins and a commanding position atop the Steffi Graf Group, Sabalenka now needs only one set against Coco Gauff to guarantee her passage to the semifinals. Only a straight-sets loss combined with a Pegula sweep of Paolini could complicate matters — an unlikely scenario given Sabalenka’s resolve in Riyadh.