Injury Might Weaken Sabalenka’s World No.1 Spot
Aryna Sabalenka will not compete at the 2025 China Open, pulling out due to lingering injury concerns following her victorious run at the US Open. Tournament organizers confirmed the withdrawal on Chinese platform Weibo, and the World No.1 later addressed fans directly, expressing regret while promising a return in 2026.
This marks a key turning point in the WTA season. Sabalenka, the reigning Wuhan Open champion and a 2024 China Open quarterfinalist, now forfeits a chance to defend a significant chunk of ranking points during the Asian swing. Her absence opens the door for Iga Swiatek, currently No.2, to mount a serious charge for year-end supremacy.
The No.1 Race Tightens: Points on the Line in Asia
Sabalenka leads the WTA Race by 2,076 points and the WTA Rankings by 3,292. But with 1,215 points to defend across Beijing (215) and Wuhan (1,000), and her withdrawal from China confirmed, the math starts to shift fast.
Swiatek, who rejoined the Tour this week at the Korea Open, could make a significant dent in that lead—especially if she posts strong results in Beijing and Wuhan. Based on current draw projections and known points structures:
- If Swiatek wins both China and Wuhan: she could overtake Sabalenka by 1,139 points.
- If she makes finals in both: she’s likely to pass Sabalenka by nearly 800 points.
- A semi + final combo: puts Swiatek just barely ahead in the Race.
- Quarterfinals or early exits: would leave Sabalenka still on top, but with a shrinking lead.
Sabalenka’s hold on No.1 now hinges on how Swiatek performs in the next two WTA 1000s—and whether she herself returns in time for Wuhan or the WTA Finals.
Context and Consequences for the 2025 Season
This isn’t just about titles—it’s about timing. Last fall, Swiatek was serving a suspension, meaning she has little to defend during this stretch. Sabalenka, on the other hand, is giving up substantial ground after going deep in both Asian swing events last year.
Even if Swiatek doesn’t reclaim the top spot this month, any gains she makes now will be crucial for the WTA Finals and the year-end No.1 battle. If Sabalenka skips Wuhan or underperforms due to injury, her cushion could vanish completely—especially with Swiatek likely to play a full slate of fall events.
Both women have won two Slams in the past 14 months. This next stretch could decide who owns 2025.