Rybakina’s Early Dominance Fades as Keys Finds Her Path
Madison Keys stumbled out of the gate with uncharacteristic errors, allowing Elena Rybakina to race ahead 4-1 seemingly effortlessly. The Kazakh’s early rhythm forced Keys’ returns either long or into the net. But a sudden rebreak pulled the score back to 4-4, and in a blink, that commanding start was gone. Rybakina still managed to reach a tiebreak, but it unraveled into a stunning 6-0 lead for Keys at the changeover. She closed it out 7-3, sealing the set. What had looked certain for Rybakina collapsed completely.
Momentum Swings — Who Seized It When It Mattered Most?
Keys stayed composed in the second, but Rybakina didn’t elevate her game much either. Still, the set crept to 4–4 before Rybakina dug deep for a gritty break and served it out, 6–4.
Just as the final set began, Keys called for a medical timeout—clear signs of physical fatigue starting to show. Elena Rybakina, now fully locked in, took full advantage. She surged to a 3–1 lead, winning extended rallies and taking calculated risks on her second serve, a tactical trait honed under coach Stefano Vukov. Keys briefly looked refreshed after treatment and fought hard in the following games, but the physical toll was visible. Despite her resistance, Rybakina was simply the sharper player down the stretch—similar to how she dominated the first five games of the opening set. She closed out the decider 6–2, turning a very shaky start into a solid finish.
Rybakina vs Keys – Match Stats
| Statistic | Rybakina | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Dominance Ratio | 1.28 | 0.78 |
| Serve Rating | 267 | 220 |
| Aces | 6 | 1 |
| Double Faults | 2 | 6 |
| 1st Serve % | 52% (49/94) | 55% (56/101) |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 71% (35/49) | 68% (38/56) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 60% (27/45) | 42% (19/45) |
| Break Points Saved | 67% (6/9) | 57% (8/14) |
| Service Games | 80% (12/15) | 60% (9/15) |
| Ace % | 6.4% | 1% |
| Double Fault % | 2.1% | 5.9% |
| Return Rating | 173 | 122 |
| 1st Return Points Won | 32% (18/56) | 29% (14/49) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 58% (26/45) | 40% (18/45) |
| Break Points Won | 43% (6/14) | 33% (3/9) |
| Return Games | 40% (6/15) | 20% (3/15) |
| Pressure Points | 52% (12/23) | 48% (11/23) |
| Service Points | 66% (62/94) | 56% (57/101) |
| Return Points | 44% (44/101) | 34% (32/94) |
| Total Points | 54% (106/195) | 46% (89/195) |
| Match Points Saved | 0 | 0 |
| Max Points In A Row | 9 | 7 |
| Total Games Won | 60% (18/30) | 40% (12/30) |
| Max Games In A Row | 4 | 3 |
| Injury Timeouts | 0 | 0 |
| Match Duration | 2h 26m | |
Missed Lessons and US Open Consequences for Madison Keys
By failing to close the match, Keys lost a critical opportunity to gather insight on her form against elite competition. A showdown with Sabalenka in round four would have been a goldmine of preparation heading into New York. Instead, she exits with nothing more than a loss to reflect on—hardly a confidence builder.
For Rybakina, the path ahead isn’t much clearer. She beat an inconsistent Keys, but to truly validate her form, she’ll need to overcome Sabalenka. If the Belarusian falters against Rybakina, it could expose her as less of a US Open favorite than expected. Sabalenka will learn as much as Madison Keys did today. One of the only advantages having to play Elena Rybakina.