Nine seasons, nine champions — and still no repeat winner. The year-end stage in Riyadh will once again crown someone new, after Coco Gauff and Iga Swiatek both bowed out before the semifinals. What remains is not just a clash of styles, but a collision of resurgence — two players who have rebuilt their seasons from mid-year frustration into peak form. Elena Rybakina and Jessica Pegula arrive in the desert as the WTA’s most reinvigorated forces, each playing her sharpest tennis when it matters most.
Rybakina Rising — A Power Game Reborn
Aryna Sabalenka may lead the rankings, but it’s Rybakina who has looked most at ease under Saudi skies. The 26-year-old Moscow-born stormed through the Steffi Graf group with mechanical precision, surrendering only one set en route to the semifinals. Even that came against Iga Swiatek — a match Rybakina coolly flipped on its head, 3–6, 6–1, 6–0, to underline just how dangerous she becomes when she finds her range.
Now on a nine-match winning streak, five of them against Top 10 opponents, Rybakina has rediscovered her early-season dominance. Her serve is biting again, her groundstrokes carry a clarity of intent, and her composure — once her Achilles heel — looks steely. For a player who had never escaped the group stage before, she now strides into the semifinals as the quiet favorite.
Pegula’s Precision — The Reawakening of a Contender
Across the net, Pegula brings a different kind of revival. After a patchy North American swing, the 31-year-old American has rediscovered her rhythm. Her three-set win over Gauff set the tone, followed by a composed display against world No. 1 Sabalenka, where she went toe to toe and refused to fade. In Riyadh, she’s been efficient, fearless, and — crucially — unhurried. The routine win over Jasmine Paolini was proof enough.
Pegula, ever the pragmatist, has built her success on rhythm and intelligence rather than fireworks. This is her third straight WTA Finals semifinal, and while she trails Rybakina in raw firepower, her court sense remains second to none. The Buffalo native leads their head-to-head 3–1, though the balance feels closer than that suggests.
Head-to-Head Record Pegula vs. Rybakina
| Tournament | Winner | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTA Finals (Guadalajara) | Jessica Pegula | 7–5, 6–2 | 29 Oct 2023 |
| Miami Open (SF) | Elena Rybakina | 7–6, 6–4 | 31 Mar 2023 |
| Guadalajara Open (R32) | Jessica Pegula | 2–6, 6–3, 7–6 | 19 Oct 2022 |
| Miami Open (R32) | Jessica Pegula | 6–3, 6–4 | 27 Mar 2022 |
Pegula leads 3–1, but Rybakina’s lone victory — in Miami — came on a quick, low-bouncing surface not unlike Riyadh’s. Both have evolved since their last meeting; both now look fresher and more assertive than at any point this season.
When Momentum Meets Stability
If Pegula can blunt Rybakina’s first serve and stretch rallies beyond the third shot, she has the rhythm to frustrate the Kazakh into errors. But Rybakina’s current groove feels different — smoother, more controlled, and undeniably confident. The Kazakh also comes in with an extra day’s rest — a small but useful edge at this stage.
Expect Pegula to steal momentum early, but Rybakina’s heavier delivery and fearless striking may tilt the balance once she settles in.
Prediction: Rybakina win
Both women have redefined their seasons in Riyadh. One through force, the other through finesse — proof that even after a long year, rejuvenation remains tennis’s most dangerous weapon.
Rybakina Crushes Anisimova to Open WTA Finals Campaign With Commanding Win