The WTA calendar has a habit of biting back. Ranking points earned in one blazing fortnight can turn into pressure twelve months later, and the opening weeks of 2026 will feel unforgiving for those defending deep runs from last season.
But for a select group, January arrives with opportunity rather than anxiety. With minimal points coming off from early 2025, several players are effectively playing with house money — and some are well placed to make serious ranking noise.
Anisimova’s Window to the Top Three
Amanda Anisimova starts 2026 with momentum and freedom. World No. 4, she is defending just 2% of her ranking points, thanks largely to a second-round exit at the 2025 Australian Open.
That leaves the door ajar. A deep Melbourne run would bring immediate upside, especially with Coco Gauff only around 500 points ahead and defending a quarterfinal in Australia before a heavy clay-season burden later in the spring.
Given Anisimova’s 2025 résumé — two WTA 1000 titles, two Grand Slam finals, and a semifinal on WTA Finals debut — the notion of her cementing herself inside the top three no longer feels speculative. It feels timely.
Rybakina and Paolini Smell Opportunity
Elena Rybakina knows what life at world No. 3 looks like. She has been there before, following her Australian Open final run in 2023, and she enters 2026 with just a fourth-round showing to defend in Melbourne.
Ranked fifth, buoyed by a dominant WTA Finals campaign, and always dangerous on hard courts, another major run would put her right back in the conversation at the very top.
Jasmine Paolini is in a similar position, albeit slightly further down the ladder. Currently eighth, the Italian is defending only 4% of her points. After a strong Asian swing and another Billie Jean King Cup Finals triumph with Italy, she has a chance to reset the narrative after a muted start to 2025.
Alexandrova and Noskova Hover Near the Door
Movement around the edge of the top 10 feels inevitable, and Ekaterina Alexandrova is well positioned to benefit. World No. 10, she has just 2% of her points coming off and arrives after a strong finish to 2025. A Melbourne win — something she has not managed since 2023 — could be enough to push her higher.
Linda Noskova, meanwhile, continues to look like a top-10 player in waiting. The 21-year-old Czech is ranked 13th and also defends only 2% from the Australian Open. After falling to Anisimova in the China Open final, she enters 2026 with confidence, clarity, and a genuine shot at breaking new ground.
Youth on the Rise: Mboko, Eala, and the Next Wave
Few rises were as steep as Victoria Mboko’s in 2025. From outside the top 300 to Canadian Open champion and Grand Slam seed, the 19-year-old now sits at No. 18 with just 3% of her points under threat. Her Australian Open debut represents a free swing — and potentially a lucrative one.
The same logic applies to Iva Jovic and Alexandra Eala. Jovic, 18, already owns a WTA 500 title and begins the year at No. 35, with only 5% of her points to defend. Eala, ranked 53rd, broke new ground in 2025 as the first Filipino player to win a WTA title and crack the top 50. She too is defending just 5%.
Add in players like Anna Kalinskaya and Loïs Boisson, both defending zero points, and the early weeks of 2026 start to look like a reshuffle waiting to happen.
The Numbers at a Glance
| Player | Rank (end 2025) | Points | Defending |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Anisimova | 4 | 6,287 | 2% |
| Elena Rybakina | 5 | 5,850 | 6% |
| Jasmine Paolini | 8 | 4,325 | 4% |
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | 10 | 3,375 | 2% |
| Linda Noskova | 13 | 2,641 | 2% |
| Victoria Mboko | 18 | 2,157 | 3% |
| Anna Kalinskaya | 33 | 1,461 | nothing |
| Iva Jovic | 35 | 1,423 | 5% |
| Loïs Boisson | 36 | 1,351 | nothing |
| Alexandra Eala | 53 | 1,116 | 5% |
| Janice Tjen | 54 | 1,104 | 1% |
| Elsa Jacquemot | 56 | 1,076 | 1% |
January Sets the Tone
With the Australian Open running from January 18 to February 1, the first major of the year will immediately test who can turn freedom into momentum. For players like Anisimova, Rybakina, Mboko, and Eala, the equation is simple.
Little to lose. Plenty to gain. And a rankings landscape that may look very different by February.
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